Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 146.93 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move downward from the zero mark, which allowed for a dollar sell position. However, this trade resulted in a loss. Later, a test of 147.26 took place as the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero mark, validating a dollar buy scenario. As a result, the pair rose toward the 147.69 target level but fell just a few points short.

Today, there are no major economic releases in the U.S., but attention should be given to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which serves as a barometer of small business owners' sentiment in the U.S. This index reflects their expectations regarding future economic conditions, hiring plans, investments, and sales. A rising index generally indicates growing confidence and readiness for expansion, which supports the U.S. dollar.

The JOLTS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Bureau of Labor Statistics) provides valuable insights into labor market trends. By tracking job openings, hires, and voluntary and involuntary separations, JOLTS helps assess labor demand, job stability, and worker sentiment. An increase in job openings typically supports the dollar, whereas a decline can put downward pressure on it.

For intraday trading, I will focus on executing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches 147.79 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 148.39 (thicker green line). At 148.39, I will exit buy positions and open a sell position in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point pullback. A continued bullish correction is expected. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the 147.33 level is tested twice in a row, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A subsequent rise to 147.79 and 148.39 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after it breaks below 147.33 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 146.86, where I will exit sell positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 point rebound. Selling pressure could emerge at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – Expected target price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – Expected target price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is essential to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

Making trading decisions requires extreme caution. Avoid entering the market ahead of key fundamental reports, as sudden price swings may lead to losses. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly deplete your entire deposit, especially when using high leverage and large trade volumes.

For successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making impulsive decisions based on short-term market fluctuations is a losing strategy for intraday traders.