empty
15.04.2025 09:46 AM
Trump Will Either Win or Lose. Is There No Middle Ground? (Potential Renewed Decline in #SPX and Bitcoin)

On Monday, markets calmed slightly amid Donald Trump's apparent backpedaling on the trade barriers he had imposed on America's trading partners. It gives the impression that the U.S. president is starting to retreat. But is that the case?

Clearly, the U.S. orchestrated the chaos surrounding the tariffs, primarily targeting China but also aimed at Europe and India. The latter two have traditionally shown weakness and remain highly dependent on Washington. Market speculators warmly welcomed Trump's decision to grant a 90-day delay, and the subsequent pause in implementing high tariffs on computers, components, and consumer electronics helped fuel gains in tech giants' shares, which lifted other sectors and global financial markets overall.

But is Trump truly backing down, with his trade war slowly fading away or becoming a more localized conflict focused on Beijing?

In a previous article, I mentioned the distinctive psychological profile of the 47th president of the United States, which plays a huge role in America's decision-making. Whether we like it or not, that's a fact. It's already clear that Trump is maneuvering. In simpler terms, he will continue to pursue his goals — by fair means or foul. He will manipulate, make promises, break them, and so on. This is all part of American political tradition and typical of its presidents. Therefore, we should expect continued pressure on China and other trade partners as Trump seeks to impose his interests through strong-arm tactics. That means periods of easing will alternate with increased pressure. The question is whether this tactic will be effective and how it will affect market dynamics.

It seems investors are aware of the uncertain prospects of Trump's trade war, so it's unlikely we'll see lasting optimism. Most likely, any local stock market rallies will remain under the shadow of trade war uncertainty. The start of earnings season should soon offer some clarity. Yes, the trade war began in March, which isn't enough time to fully assess its impact — but if significant negative consequences begin to emerge, stocks may struggle to advance.

A similar picture will likely unfold in the commodities market. Cryptocurrencies will also remain under pressure, as they are susceptible to trade war rumors and developments. As for the U.S. dollar, after last week's decline, it has begun to consolidate below the key psychological level of 100.00.

I have serious doubts about Trump's alleged retreat. I believe that the chaos in the markets will persist. It is unclear how long this will continue. However, we can confidently say that this situation will persist until the U.S. president either reaches agreements with key trade partners or his approach to "Making America Great Again" collapses under the weight of domestic problems and mounting resistance.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Daily Forecast:

#SPX

The CFD on the S&P 500 futures is hovering around 5397.70. If it fails to rebound from this level and resume its upward movement, we may see a local reversal and decline toward 5148.55 amid deteriorating market sentiment. The sell trigger could be a drop below 5369.56.

Bitcoin

The token is trading below the 86088.50 mark. Deteriorating market sentiment may lead to a price reversal and a decline toward 82120.85. The sell trigger could be a breakdown below 85095.00.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair is falling below the psychological level of 1.1300. The election of Friedrich Merz as Chancellor of Germany reduces uncertainty regarding the economic strength

Irina Yanina 11:12 2025-05-08 UTC+2

The Market Will Save Itself

The Fed is no longer the center of the financial universe, and the S&P 500's 13% rally from April lows has once again made U.S. equities expensive. That sums

Marek Petkovich 10:13 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Fed's Rate Hold and US-China Talks Support the Dollar (High Likelihood of EUR/USD and Gold Declines)

The Federal Reserve remained firm, with its leadership reaffirming a steadfast wait-and-see approach. Interestingly, the Fed did not respond to notable changes in the economy, citing heightened uncertainty

Pati Gani 09:53 2025-05-08 UTC+2

The Bank of England Is Ready to Cut Rates

The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point today and signal that another reduction is likely in June. This could potentially

Jakub Novak 09:21 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Why Gold Dropped Sharply After the Fed Meeting

Gold experienced a slight uptick following the Federal Reserve's meeting, where interest rates were kept unchanged and Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is in no rush

Jakub Novak 09:17 2025-05-08 UTC+2

FOMC Meeting Results

The euro and British pound resumed their decline against the US dollar following the release of the Federal Reserve meeting results; however, the drop was not significant, and the future

Jakub Novak 09:15 2025-05-08 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 8? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Thursday, and none are significant. Germany will release its industrial production report for March, and the U.S. will publish weekly jobless claims. These

Paolo Greco 06:05 2025-05-08 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 8: The Tesla Crisis as the Apex of Trump's Policy

The GBP/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly for most of Wednesday despite the evening FOMC meeting. As per our usual approach, we won't be analyzing the results of that meeting

Paolo Greco 03:39 2025-05-08 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 8: A First Step Toward De-escalation?

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade sideways for most of Wednesday. There was a minor upward movement, but as a reminder, the pair has now been range-bound for three

Paolo Greco 03:39 2025-05-08 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Awaiting the Geneva Meeting

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade within a narrow price range ahead of announcing the Federal Reserve's May meeting results. Although the outcome is largely predetermined (the central bank

Irina Manzenko 00:47 2025-05-08 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.