empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Key documents
Social Responsibility
29.01.2025 11:25 AM
Wave analysis of BTC/USD on January 29. Bitcoin neglects all headwinds
Open trading account Open demo account

This image is no longer relevant

The BTC/USD wave structure looks clear on the 4-hour chart. Following a prolonged and complex corrective a-b-c-d-e structure formed between March 14 and August 5, a new impulse wave has emerged. It is already taking shape as a five-wave formation. Based on the size of wave 1, wave 5 is likely to be dwarf. Given this structure, I do not expect Bitcoin to rise above $110,000–$115,000 in the coming months.

Wave 4 has formed a three-wave pattern, confirming the correctness of the current wave analysis. Since the formation of wave 5 has begun, it is time to look for buying opportunities. However, as mentioned earlier, this wave could end very soon—or may have already completed.

Bitcoin's growth has been fueled by a steady influx of institutional investments, including from hedge funds, government entities, and pension funds. However, Trump's policies could force investors to exit the market, and no trend can remain bullish indefinitely.

The market ignores sell signals

On Tuesday, BTC/USD dropped another $1,000, yet market participants continue buying aggressively, pushing the world's leading cryptocurrency back toward its recent peaks. In my view, this behavior is puzzling, as everything seems aligned for a corrective trend phase to begin.

Of course, large market players have their own logic—firms like MicroStrategy refuse to consider anything except buying. Perhaps Bitcoin does have a bullish future, and one day its price might reach $1,000,000. In that case, the strategy is simple—buy at any price and hold.

However, when trading Bitcoin, it is unusual to see trends without corrections, with the market completely ignoring negative factors. Many traders had been anticipating an "altcoin season", yet it never arrived. Altcoins (except for the largest ones) have lost interest among investors. Even Ethereum is declining, while Bitcoin remains stable.

Donald Trump promised to create a national Bitcoin reserve immediately after his re-election. However, he quickly forgot about that promise as has happened with many other pledges. In my opinion, the US government will not buy Bitcoin for reserves at current prices—why would they, if they can wait for a better entry point? However, for that to happen, Bitcoin needs to drop significantly.

Right now, I see another speculative bubble forming in the cryptocurrency market. Every bubble bursts sooner or later. Even though Bitcoin is carrying on rising, it will eventually face a major collapse. In this situation, I cannot recommend buying BTC, no matter how attractive it may seem.

Conclusions

Based on my BTC/USD analysis, I believe Bitcoin's growth phase is nearing its end. This may be an unpopular opinion, but wave 5 could end up shortened, leading to either a sharp collapse or a prolonged correction. Therefore, I do not recommend buying BTC at this stage.

If wave 5 starts forming an extended five-wave structure, then a convincing wave 2 correction should appear within it. At the moment, wave 2 is visible, but it is not strong enough to confirm further growth. At least one more decline is likely ahead.

On a higher time frame, Bitcoin is forming a five-wave bullish structure. However, this suggests that a corrective or bearish trend may soon begin.

This image is no longer relevant

Key principles of my analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear – complex structures are harder to trade as they frequently shift unexpectedly.

2. If there is no clear market direction, it's better to stay out.

3. There is never 100% certainty in price movements. Always use Stop Loss orders.

4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of technical analysis and trading strategies.

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Technical analysis
Indicator Analysis: Daily Overview for EUR/USD on March 12, 2025 On Wednesday, the market may start a downward movement from 1.0910 (yesterday's closing level), targeting 1.0861 – the 14.6% retracement level (blue dashed line). If this level is tested
Stefan Doll
10:05 2025-03-12 +02:00
1030
Fundamental analysis
The U.S. Dollar Is Preparing for Growth After a recent surge in the euro, pound, and several other risk assets, the U.S. dollar has recovered some of its losses. The likelihood of further strengthening of the dollar
Jakub Novak
09:59 2025-03-12 +02:00
1015
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on March 12

Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced a slight recovery after another sell-off, reaching new yearly lows. The panic seen in both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market has paused
Miroslaw Bawulski 08:03 2025-03-12 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on March 11

Bitcoin and Ethereum have both reached new annual lows, mirroring a decline in the U.S. stock market, which has now fallen for the fourth consecutive week. Yesterday, the crypto market
Miroslaw Bawulski 09:03 2025-03-11 UTC+2

BTC/USD Analysis – March 11th: Has Bitcoin's Decline Ended?

The wave structure on the 4-hour BTC/USD chart is quite clear. Following the completion of a five-wave bullish trend, the market has entered a downward phase, which currently appears
Chin Zhao 08:39 2025-03-11 UTC+2

Bitcoin at Risk: Will the Trend Reverse After Mass Liquidations?

The past few weeks have posed a significant challenge for Bitcoin. In just a few days, its price fell below $85,000, leading to a wave of liquidations and causing investor
Ekaterina Kiseleva 00:16 2025-03-11 UTC+2

BTC/USD Analysis – March 10th

The 4-hour wave structure for BTC/USD is quite clear. After the completion of a five-wave bullish trend, the market has transitioned into a bearish corrective phase. Given this
Chin Zhao 11:51 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Trading tips for crypto market on March 10

Bitcoin and Ethereum have resumed their downtrend, as confirmed by ETF data showing another significant capital outflow. At the time of writing, Bitcoin has bounced off the $80,000 level
Miroslaw Bawulski 10:41 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Bitcoin and Ethereum Are Showing Extremely High Volatility

Demand in the cryptocurrency market remains, but Bitcoin and Ethereum's every attempt at growth is met with sell-offs. Since last Monday, when Bitcoin's price volatility reached its highest level
Jakub Novak 09:11 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Bitcoin – Technical Analysis

Despite last week bringing the market back to its previous consolidation zone, sellers remain active. They are currently retesting the support level of the weekly medium-term trend at 82,161.59, with
Evangelos Poulakis 23:43 2025-03-09 UTC+2

Cryptocurrency Market Trading Recommendations for March 7th

Bitcoin and Ethereum continue their struggle for growth, though not without challenges. At the time of writing, Bitcoin rebounded from the $84,000 level and is trading at $88,000. Ethereum also
Miroslaw Bawulski 12:52 2025-03-07 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Doge Cryptocurrency, Friday March 07, 2025.

With the appearance of Divergence between price movements and the RSI(5) indicator on the 4-hour chart, it has given a confirmation that in the near future Doge has the potential
Arief Makmur 07:10 2025-03-07 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 21:00 2025-03-12 UTC--4
EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 12: And This Is Just the Beginning...
03:25 2025-03-12
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 22:00 2025-03-12 UTC--4
EUR/USD Forecast for March 12, 2025
04:50 2025-03-12
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 00:00 2025-03-13 UTC--4
How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on March 12? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners
07:03 2025-03-12
Trading plan
Relevance up to 21:00 2025-03-12 UTC--4
GBP/USD Pair Overview – March 12: The Wealth of the U.S. According to Donald Trump
03:25 2025-03-12
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 01:00 2025-03-13 UTC--4
Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on March 12
07:25 2025-03-12
Forecast
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.