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25.04.2025 07:06 AM
What to Pay Attention to on April 25? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

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A few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, but this doesn't matter, as the market continues to ignore 90% of all publications. Among the more or less significant reports today, we can note retail sales in the UK and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US. These are interesting reports that would have triggered a market reaction three months ago, but not now. Currently, everything still depends solely on Donald Trump.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

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There is no point in discussing any fundamental events besides Trump's trade war. The dollar's decline can continue indefinitely if Trump keeps imposing new tariffs and raising existing ones. Any escalation may lead to a further drop in the dollar, while any de-escalation could support its strengthening. This week, Trump began to soften his rhetoric toward China, but this does not yet constitute de-escalation. Knowing the US president, we wouldn't be surprised if Trump turns around and raises them again after announcing tariff relief for China.

Trump stated that he does not intend to keep trade tariffs for China at 145%, which caused a wave of relief across all markets. However, at the same time, China stated that no negotiations with Trump are currently taking place. The European Union noted that consultations are happening, but the European Commission does not understand the US president's demands. Thus, we can confidently say that negotiations with the US's two key partners either aren't taking place or are at a very early stage.

General Conclusions:

During the week's final trading day, both currency pairs may move in either direction. Positive news for the dollar has already been priced in, so expecting a new wave of declines in both pairs is difficult for now. The euro has a chance to fall to the 1.1275 level, but further decline seems doubtful. The British pound may follow the euro, but Trump could, at any moment, trigger a new sell-off of the dollar.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

  1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
  2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
  4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
  5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
  6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
  7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Note for Beginner Forex Traders: Not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and sound money management is key to long-term success in trading.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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