Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are few macroeconomic events scheduled for Thursday, and regardless, they are unlikely to hold significant weight for traders. Over the past week and a half, the market has largely ignored events and reports that suggest the strength of the U.S. dollar and economy. Instead, it has reacted strongly to news unfavorable to the U.S. currency, particularly reports about Donald Trump introducing new tariffs. Additionally, a market correction is in the works, which may lead the EUR/USD pair to trend downward, regardless of the macroeconomic context. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD continues its steady growth.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

On Thursday, several representatives from the European Central Bank are scheduled to speak. However, the market remains focused primarily on Donald Trump's decisions and statements. Recently, Christine Lagarde delivered a speech addressing inflation, noting that while inflation could see a slight uptick due to U.S. tariffs, a significant rise is unlikely. She also mentioned that inflation might become more stable. Nevertheless, the market showed little interest in this information, as Trump's tariffs and the resolution of the Ukraine conflict remain the prevailing concerns.

General Conclusions:

On the fourth trading day of the week, both currency pairs may fluctuate in any direction, as the market is currently driven by emotions. Donald Trump is a significant catalyst in this situation. If the U.S. president announces new sanctions or tariffs, the dollar could face pressure. Conversely, if there are no updates from Trump, both currency pairs may experience a slight correction. However, it is worth noting that the pound shows no signs of wanting to correct at all.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.