Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro

The test of the 1.0855 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 1.0893.

Without any key economic data releases, the euro continued to strengthen, which was expected. This trend is likely to persist in the afternoon, but a slight correction may be necessary beforehand. The primary driver remains the overall weakness of the dollar, fueled by expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve in the future. In general, the euro's near-term outlook appears favorable, but traders should remain cautious and consider potential market volatility.

Today, the U.S. will release the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and data on job openings and labor turnover from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These reports will serve as key indicators for assessing the current state of the U.S. economy. The NFIB Index reflects the sentiment of small business owners, who play a crucial role in economic growth and job creation. A decline in optimism could signal upcoming economic challenges and a slowdown in growth.

Meanwhile, JOLTS data will provide insight into labor market conditions and workforce demand. A rise in job openings indicates employer confidence and readiness for expansion, while increased employee turnover may suggest heightened competition for skilled workers and rising wages.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus on executing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0918 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.0980. At 1.0980, I will exit the market and initiate a sell position, aiming for a 30-35 point pullback from the entry point. The euro is expected to continue its upward movement in line with the prevailing trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I will also buy the euro if the 1.0877 level is tested twice in a row, with the MACD indicator in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A subsequent rise to 1.0918 and 1.0980 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.0877 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0815, where I will exit the market and immediately initiate a buy position, expecting a 20-25 point rebound in the opposite direction. Selling pressure may return if buyers fail to sustain momentum at the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I will also sell the euro if the 1.0918 level is tested twice in a row, with the MACD indicator in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A subsequent decline to 1.0877 and 1.0815 can be expected.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – Expected target price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – Expected target price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is essential to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

Making trading decisions requires extreme caution. Avoid entering the market ahead of key fundamental reports, as sudden price swings may lead to losses. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly deplete your entire deposit, especially when using high leverage and large volumes.

For successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making impulsive decisions based on current market movements is a losing strategy for intraday traders.